La competencia exterior aplana la Curva de Phillips
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Resumen
En este trabajo elaboramos una curva de Phillips para economías abiertas (CPEA) con fundamentación microeconómica, en la que la competencia exterior impacta significativamente sobre la inflación interna. Esta influencia se transmite a través de dos canales: a) el desfase entre las tasas de crecimiento actual y potencial de las importaciones, y b) el desalineamiento del tipo de cambio real. Estimamos esta CPEA aplicando dos tipos de técnicas econométricas: regresiones de panel y PVAR acompañado de un análisis de respuestas al impulso. Utilizamos una muestra de 15 economías avanzadas con datos del periodo 1994-2017. Los resultados de las dos metodologías apoyan la validez de la relación teórica y sugieren que la competencia internacional reduce el poder de mercado de las empresas domésticas, frenando así las presiones inflacionistas. Encontramos también que la pendiente de la CPEA ha disminuido sustancialmente en los años posteriores a la Gran Recesión.
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