Revisión de la Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: dinámicas de demanda y oferta, heterogeneidad y causalidad en un panel global
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Dentro de la literatura sobre la Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis, continúa siendo una cuestión abierta si el turismo contribuye al crecimiento económico a través de mecanismos de demanda o de oferta. Utilizando un panel de 84 países para el período 1995–2018, este estudio examina la relación entre turismo y crecimiento económico aplicando test de cointegración a dos indicadores de demanda turística y aun indicador de oferta turística. Al distinguir entre economías de la OCDE y no OCDE, el análisis tiene en cuenta de forma explícita la heterogeneidad entre países, capturando al mismo tiempo tanto las dinámicas de corto como de largo plazo. Los resultados muestran evidencia robusta de cointegración, con diferencias relevantes según el horizonte temporal y el grupo de países. En particular, la variable de oferta desempeña un papel más destacado en las economías no OCDE, especialmente en el corto plazo, mientras que las dedemanda resultan más relevantes en los países de la OCDE. Asimismo, los resultados del test de causalidad de Granger indican la existencia de relaciones bidireccionales entre el turismo y el crecimiento económico, lo que es consistente con la presencia de dinámicas de refuerzo mutuo entre el desarrollo turístico y el desempeño
económico.
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