Impacto de la incertidumbre de política económica en los mercados bursátiles: evidencia empírica de panel para una veintena de países en el periodo 2003-2020
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Este estudio analiza cómo la incertidumbre afecta a los mercados bursátiles a nivel global entre 2003 y 2020, concretamente a través de una triple perspectiva: incertidumbre de política económica, los riesgos geopolíticos y la volatilidad de los mercados financieros. Con ello, mediante un enfoque de datos de panel, se evalúa si dicha incertidumbre tiene un impacto homogéneo entre diferentes economías. Además, se consideran tanto los niveles como la variabilidad de la incertidumbre y se realiza un análisis clúster y ANOVA para identificar patrones entre una veintena de países a nivel internacional. Los resultados del modelo de efectos aleatorios muestran que la incertidumbre de política económica, el riesgo geopolítico, los tipos de interés y la inflación tienen efectos negativos sobre los mercados bursátiles, mientras que el crecimiento económico y los tipos de cambio influyen positivamente.
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